NBA Draft for Dummies August 17 2008
So I was watching the NBA Draft this year, and I started thinking how ridiculous the hype was. I mean, 10 years from now, how many of these people will be remembered? The failure rate seems rather high. I couldn’t decide whether this was a consequence of bad scouting, player work ethic, or simply a bad fit. For a second opinion, I called my resident NBA expert, Jake Sunwell.
| “Yo, you busy?”
“Technically yes. I’m in a raid right now, but go ahead.” “You sure? I don’t want to cause a wipe.” “Dude, I’m a pally. All I do is spam Flash of Light. It only takes one finger, and it’s brainless. Go ahead.” “I’m watching the NBA Draft right now. Why do you think so many draft picks don’t pan out?” |
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“Aside from the fact that many GMs are total tools? Lots of reasons, but my favorite is the overvaluation of physical potential and undervaluation of psychology. Potential is nice, but if you are lazy bastard, it’s worthless.”
“Yeah, I agree. Although I would just say that physique does matter to a certain extent. A pencil thin guy might not be able to withstand the rigors of the season. So what kind of traits would you look for?”
“It all boils down to drive. This covers how you respond to pressure, criticism, and failure. Drive means not settling and always challenging yourself to be better. All great players have it.”
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“This quality can also make you an overbearing teammate. As you know, team building is important to me. What do you think about drafting based on need?”
“Sound like you’ll need to get new teammates. You’ll never win a championship with a complacent team. I agree that having 50 guards and no centers is not good, but you should be shot if you use that logic to pass up Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie. You must draft the elite talent; it’s just that simple. It’s afterwards that GMs start screwing up. They default to the ‘draft the best available’ approach which works a lot better in fantasy than real life. Here is where I would consider the team building that you so love. Ask yourself whether the pick will be better than what you got. If not, trade the pick. IMO, proven veterans and cap space are better than most unproven rookies. And unless you have a great scouting department like the San Antonio Spurs, you can forget about finding hidden gems. A glance at history shows that the chances are pretty low. There you go – the NBA Draft for Dummies from yours truly.” |
“But how a rookie turns out is also determined by the environment he starts in. I mean, how is anyone going to develop if he vegetates on the bench for years? Many teams need to improve their rookie development.”
Jake laughed. “I agree with you in principle, but #%$^, man, this is the pros! No babies allowed. So what if some coaches bury rookies on the bench? I have no sympathy for them; they get paid millions. Hell, pay me millions, and I’ll gladly warm the bench. Besides, what about Michael Redd? He was a 2nd Round pick who was stuck behind Ray Allen for years. Instead of whining, he worked hard and got so good that he replaced Allen.”
“Yeah. It’s still poor team planning, but I guess you’re right. It’s the professional’s job to make the best of the situation.”